The global luxury market is stabilizing with 1.44 trillion in revenue expected in 2025 but continues to lose customers, while those who remain change their habits, according to a study by consulting firm Bain and Company.

“We are finishing the year much better than we had anticipated,” said AFP Joëlle de Montgolfier, director of the luxury division of Bain and Company. In the spring, the authors of the study, carried out in partnership with the Altagamma Foundation which brings together the big names in Italian luxury, had in fact envisaged a decline of 2% to 5% in sales for the year 2025.

Consumers deterred by high prices

After a difficult start to the year, sales to UNITED STATESone of the main luxury markets, which had suffered from the start of Donald Trump’s mandate and the announcements of customs duties, have recovered “since May”, according to Joëlle de Montgolfier, while the Chinese market also seems to be stabilizing.

But after a peak of 400 million consumers in 2022, the luxury sector loses customers every year“at the rate of 10 to 20 million customers again this year” to reach 340 million, she warns. One of the reasons for this disaffection is the continued rise in prices “even though we warned last year that prices were quite high”, underlines the sector specialist.

Today, even glasses or beauty products, which “were the entry-level luxury ten years ago”, have seen their prices increase. “Spending is decreasing in frequency, consumers are turning to more modest pleasures and promotions,” warn the authors of the study.

Experiences rather than products

People who still want to have a touch of luxury in their lives are now turning to restaurants or well-being like spas“where ultimately for 200, 300 euros you will have a luxury experience whereas you will not be able to buy a pot of cream for that price”, underlines Ms. de Montgolfier.

But this trend of “experience” rather than products does not only concern so-called “aspirational” customers, that is to say, those who wish to enter the world of luxury. According to the study, this is a “persistent global trend” which also affects the wealthiest, who represent 2% of customers but 45% of spending.

“People are less into possessions than into a form of hedonism and enjoyment and therefore there is a reallocation of expenses from everything that involves purchasing products to everything that is linked to travel or the art of living,” according to Joëlle de Montgolfier.

The study calls this shift “a tectonic shift toward luxury experiences — hotel cruises, high-end dining — away from traditional goods, including luxury automobiles.”

Thus, the global market for luxury personal goods (fashion, leather goods, jewelry, watches and beauty) should remain generally stable this year. compared to the previous year, with an estimated value of 358 billion euros in 2025 (-2%). Sales of luxury cars are expected to decline by 6%, those of wines and spirits by 5%, those of works of art by 9% while sales of gastronomy are expected to increase by 5% and those of cruises by 10%.

Bain and Company estimates that over the next ten years, annual growth in the luxury personal goods market is expected to increase between 4% and 6% to reach between 525 billion euros and 625 billion euros, while overall luxury spending could reach 2,200 to 2,700 billion euros.