Globally, the cosmetics market is expected to grow 6.6 percent this year to reach a value of US$664.6 billion, according to data analytics firm Euromonitor International. Within this market, makeup is expected to grow by 6.7% and will remain as the third largest market category, behind skincare and hair, with a value of $86.3 billion in 2026. Over the next three years, makeup is expected to grow by 21%, reaching a value of $104.7 billion in 2029.
What will be the drivers of this growth in the years to come? What trends will prevail? And how can brands adapt? According to Chloé Arjona, beauty director of the French trend forecasting agency NellyRodi, makeup is on the cusp of a global transformation.
Of the clean girl to expressiveness
“With everything that is happening in the world – a chaotic and uncertain climate – we tend to favor what is reassuring, to go back to basics,” explained Chloé Arjona during a round table at the show Cosmoprof Worldwide Bolognalast month. This is why, according to her, minimalist trends like clean girl and the no-makeup makeup have enjoyed such success in recent years: in times of crisis, consumers favor care routines rather than expressiveness.
More things are changing. “Now that we’ve optimized a lot of routines and we’ve seen the rise of clean girl trends and aesthetics, we’re reaching a plateau where everything seems a bit homogeneous, standardized, and everyone looks the same. I think it’s the end of a phase and the beginning of a new cycle,” according to the beauty expert.
For Chloé Arjona, makeup enters a cycle richer in pigments and more expressivewhile relying on the foundations of a minimalist aesthetic and enriched, skin-friendly formulas. CeneaFrench dermo-active makeup brand, and Florasisa high-end Chinese makeup brand, who both participated in the same round table, illustrate this change. Both brands include natural or reputedly pure ingredients in their formulas. “This is the new standard”: makeup enriched with skincare active ingredients to which value is added with more pigments.
Hybrid and highly pigmented formulas
According to Nassim Hamek, formerly of L’Oréal and Typology, now founder, president and CEO of Cénéethis is precisely the path his brand is on. Cénée, he explained, offers “hybrid products” that integrate skincare active ingredients with traditional makeup formulas, with a beautiful range of “bold and highly pigmented” shades.
“Today, the clean girl look remains very popular,” he said. “Even within my brand, it’s the nude and sheer shades that sell best. But when I launched these super intense colors and pigments, makeup artists exclaimed, “Finally hybrid products I can use!” »
Nassim Hamek believes that makeup products, both luminous and good for the skin, represent a segment with strong growth potential.despite the technical difficulties often encountered by formulators and brands, and an overall market generally smaller than that of the clean girl.
For Gabby Chen, president of international markets at Florasispigments and skin care are at the heart of the brand’s offering, which aims to develop internationally. “In Asia, we use traditional Chinese medicine to create makeup. It may not be 100% natural beauty, but it’s made with natural ingredients,” she explained.
According to her, Florasis stands out from the minimalist makeup trend by offering a range of colorful and skin-friendly makeup products, drawing their roots from traditional Chinese know-how and heritage. “Our history is rooted in culture, and culture is a way to share art with the world. We are not minimalists, and we never will be, because it is an integral part of our heritage and our DNA.”
A playful and expressive beauty
Nassim Hamek pointed out that in Europe, discussions around makeup often focus on “undesirable ingredients” and that this needs to change. While it’s not easy to meet performance expectations with healthier, more natural formulas, it is nevertheless possible, as brands such as Cénée prove, he explained. “In five years, the word makeup will no longer be scary,” according to him, and we will be ready to “dare to use color” and “have more fun” with products in this category.
“I am convinced that we are evolving towards a more expressive approach to beauty, in particular thanks to the arrival on the market of new brands which capitalize on the success of skin care and on everything that has become essential: complete care and clean makeup. It is also because a new generation of brands are part of this trend that it is emerging. In my opinion, these brands allow consumers to participate in this new cycle of more expressive beauty,” added Chloé Arjona.
Asked about the place of celebrity brands In this new growth cycle of makeup, she told Premium Beauty News that it will depend on their authenticity and the celebrity who represents it. “We’ve seen a lot of celebrity-led brands lately, but many have closed their doors. I believe that the ones that endure are the ones that are authentic”
“Victoria Beckham, for example, is very involved in the development of the products of her makeup brand and favors quality, excellence and luxury, which corresponds perfectly to her world and her personality, and it works,” she stressed.
